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Your boss wants to optimize the sales force staffing and has asked you to develop a forecast for all four quarters of 2022. You also know your boss prefers to have the answer in a Decision Paper format. You have never done a Decision Paper before, so you have gotten one from a colleague (Decision Paper Manufacturer A or B). Use this format to make your report for the boss.
You have several years of data (data.xlsx) of the number of vacation packages sold each quarter.
Perform the following analysis:
1. Plot the quarterly data over time (time series plot)
2. Make a table and put in the average, standard deviation, maximum, minimum, and range of the data
1. Make a linear regression of the data. Report the equation and the r-squared value.
2. Deseasonalize the data (based on what you think the seasonality is) and make another linear regression of the data, but do not include 2021 data. Report the equation and the r-squared value.
3. Use the data from 2010 to 2020 to make forecasts for year 2021. You are using the 2021 data as the hold-out data to test your models. Make forecasts using 1 quarter (your data is in quarters, not months) moving average, 4 quarter moving average, linear regression, deasonalized linear regression.
4. Calculate the MAD for each or your forecasting methods.
5. Choose a forecasting method and support your claim.
Make a Monte Carlo simulation (100 trials) for each of the four quarters. Calculate the average and standard deviation for each of the quarters. Use the average and standard deviations to develop random numbers (normal distribution) for each of the trials. Calculate the average, maximum, and minimum values of the simulation and place them in a table.
Make a final recommendation to the boss about:
1. Your 2022 forecast (include each quarter)
2. Your forecasting method and why you chose it
3. What type of range could you expect based on your simulation
Your paper should be at least 6 pages. Times New Roman or Arial 12 point font. 1 inch margins. Single spaced. This should look like a report you would give to your boss. Here are some tips for your paper.
Make sure your recommendation matches your research question/topic. You need to develop the research question, but you know what this boss is asking for, so make up a research question that matches it.
In the Analysis section think about how you would tell the story. Make sure the information leads the reader to the conclusion. Each graphic needs a brief introduction before the graphic and then a paragraph following the graphic that tells the reader what they should have taken from the graphic.
LEAD THE READER TO YOUR CONCLUSION!